Does this mean Brody is vulnerable? Definitely. For one thing, Brody already has an Oscar, which means Academy members might want to honor someone new. And even though, if he wins, he would be the youngest Best Actor winner ever, Chalamet is already on his second nomination, meaning he has proven himself to the institution. Plus, you can’t underestimate the affection people have for A Complete Unknown. (Among other things, it’s an easier watch than The Brutalist, which is the more ambitious film but still clocks in at over three and a half hours and doesn’t have a bunch of Dylan tunes in it.) If Brody loses, it would not be because of the revelation that the filmmakers used AI to perfect his Hungarian—it would be because voters fell for Chalamet’s Dylan transformation.
Will Emilia Pérez get anything at this point?
After the nominations, Emilia Pérez—the French musical about the trans leader of a Mexican drug cartel—was riding high. It was the most nominated film of the year, and looked like it was going to take home a bunch of trophies, possibly even Best Picture. But then journalist Sarah Hagi unearthed and translated a bunch of old, racist tweets from star Karla Sofía Gascón, Gascón went on the offensive, making a bunch of ill-advised statements, and the Netflix release’s awards hopes seemed dashed. At this point, will it win anything?
Based on the SAGs and BAFTAs, Zoe Saldaña’s supporting-actress trophy seems safe. Saldaña has long been the frontrunner for her portrayal of singing lawyer Rita Moro Castro, and voters haven’t lost affection for her because of Gascón’s many faux pas. Additionally, it seems likely that Emilia will get a Best Song prize. It’s nominated twice in the category, and otherwise it’s a particularly weak year. (Maybe Diane Warren will finally win, for her song from the Tyler Perry Netflix movie!) But is Emilia still a lock for Best International Film, as awards-watchers once assumed? Possibly not. Brazilian film I’m Still Here, about life under authoritarian leadership, which also got a Best Picture nomination, has momentum—and, in Fernanda Torres, a star that isn’t toxic.
Is Demi a lock?
Coming into this awards season, Demi Moore looked like an underdog. Would the Academy ever go for a movie as gross as Coralie Fargeat’s body-horror fantasia The Substance? Turns out Hollywood loved the satire, blood and all, and also loved not only Moore’s work in the film, but what she represented. Moore sealed her frontrunner status with a passionate speech at the Golden Globes, and went on to win the SAG as well. Can she lose? Rich thinks no.
“Not every comeback or career win pans out — Glenn Close is a very memorable recent example — but given how well-liked The Substance seems to be overall, I think all the pieces are in place for her to win,” she told me.
But Moore does still have competition. Anora clearly has fans in the Academy, which could translate to love for Mikey Madison, who had the breakout performance of the year as the title character. Madison won the Independent Spirit Award and the BAFTA, and while the Academy members don’t love an ingénue as much as they used to, according to Rich, she could still swoop in and claim her star-is-born moment. Also, I’ve been hearing some rumblings not to underestimate I’m Still Here’s Torres in this category. Her measured performance as a woman seeking justice for her husband who was taken from their home by Brazil’s military dictatorship won the Globe for drama. With Demi now leading the pack, Torres might be the underdog to watch.
